WASHINGTON POST

Thursday, 6 August 1998


                Debacle in Colombia Shows Rebel Strength
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        By Laura Brooks


BOGOTA -- Hundreds of leftist rebels, acting with deadly speed and
efficiency, leveled one of the Colombian government's main anti-drug bases
Tuesday as part of a nationwide offensive that left at least 130 people
dead and dozens of police officers and soldiers as rebel prisoners,
officials said today.

The destruction of the fortified Miraflores base --located in southeast
Guaviare province in the heart of Colombia's coca-growing region-- and a
string of other attacks across the country marked one of the largest
guerrilla offensives in more than a decade.

"This is one of the worst military catastrophes against the insurgency,"
said security analyst Alfredo Rangel.  "It's one more loss in a chain of
defeats for the armed forces in the last three years," he said, defeats
that have not "resulted in significant changes to the  military to combat
the rebels."

Of the 70 police officers and 120 soldiers posted at Miraflores, at least
30 were killed and about 50 wounded, while the rest are believed to have
been captured by an attacking force of up to 1,000 members of Colombia's
largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, officials
said.

Military and civilian authorities said more than 130 people had been
killed in the week's fighting, but tonight a source with access to
military intelligence data put the nationwide death toll at nearly 275
--166 police and military personnel, 45 civilians and 62 guerrillas.

Interior Minister Alfonso Lopez Caballero insisted today that the
Miraflores defeat --and more than 40 other rebel attacks on police
stations, oil facilities and other installations since Monday-- do not
mean that the military has lost control of national security.
"Installations [were] destroyed, and that produces dramatic images," he
said, "but . . . in general terms, the army has the capacity to respond
successfully to these attacks and guarantee security." Lopez blamed bad
weather for preventing military reinforcements from arriving at some
areas.

U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports, however, said the
attack demonstrates that the rebels have more strength, particularly in
modern weaponry, than the Colombian military acknowledges. Over the past
18 months, the guerrillas have greatly enlarged their numbers and their
arsenal with the millions of dollars they have earned protecting drug
traffickers who operate in areas they control.

"What we know is that the offensive was a complete disaster from the
military point of view," a U.S. official said. "The army got its butt
kicked again. It is the worst in a long string of defeats, and the
guerrillas just seem to be getting stronger and stronger while the army
just does not seem to be able to turn it around."

Colombia's program to wipe out illegal cultivation of coca leaf, the raw
material for cocaine, receives strong U.S. logistical support in Guaviare
province, where the coca crop is concentrated. American civilian pilots
who perform surveillance and coca-spraying missions rotate through
Colombia's principal anti-drug base at San Jose del Guaviare, and U.S.
military personnel conduct training missions there, according to a U.S.
official.

The Miraflores base, about 100 miles southeast of San Jose, is used as a
refueling station for spray planes on crop-eradication flights. U.S.
officials said that no U.S. personnel were at Miraflores during the rebel
raid and that no U.S. casualties were reported in any of the attacks.

A State Department official said the Miraflores attack would have a
"negligible" effect on drug-fighting efforts. "I don't want to downplay
the devastation... there, but we will be able to carry on with our
counter-narcotics programs," she said.

Rangel, the security analyst, said the rebel success at Miraflores was
especially striking because the guerrillas announced three months ago that
the base was a target. Miraflores residents said rebels leveled the base
with rockets and mortars, leaving the site a smoldering ruin. "There's
total desolation," one told the Caracol radio network.

The raid was one of at least 42 attacks unleashed by rebels in more than
half the country's 32 provinces Monday night and early Tuesday. Some
officials here called the fighting a rebel "farewell" to President Ernesto
Samper, who leaves office on Friday. Analysts interpreted the offensive as
a warning to President-elect Andres Pastrana that the rebels are in a
position of strength for any talks aimed at ending the conflict.

In recent weeks, the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the country's other
main rebel group --the Cuban-inspired National Liberation Army-- have said
they are prepared to discuss peace with the new administration, generating
optimism among Colombians weary of a 35-year war that the rebels say they
are fighting to bring about social reform and reductions in military
spending.

Analysts said, however, the latest violence should temper the optimistic
mood. "The [peace] process is going to be extremely long and extremely
tortuous," said Pedro Valenzuela, a political scientist at Javeriana
University. "I really feel [the conflict] is going to get worse before it
gets better."

        Staff writer Douglas Farah in Washington contributed to this report.

        Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company