BOGOTA - Preliminary CIA estimates show that coca fields have expanded wildly in southern Colombia, growing by more than 50 percent in a year, a U.S. official said Thursday.
"It's exploded there. You can't fly down there without seeing coca fields all over," White House deputy drug czar Thomas Umberg told U.S. reporters in a briefing at the American Embassy.
But Secretary of the Army Louis Caldera, who joined Umberg in the briefing, said a $1.3 billion U.S. aid package proposed for Colombia last week may lead to "dramatic results in 18 months" in eradicating coca, the raw material in cocaine.
The CIA will release a report in mid-February on estimated cocaine production in Colombia that will show "a dramatic increase" of more than 50 percent, Umberg said. Drug traffickers have planted more coca, increased yields and improved jungle laboratories that process coca leaves into cocaine, he said.
U.S. officials say Colombian drug gangs produce or smuggle 80 percent of the cocaine that enters the United States. The drug gangs are also expanding the country's role as a producer of heroin from opium poppies.
Earlier this week, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration announced that Colombian cocaine production will reach 330 to 440 tons this year, up from 220 tons last year, compared to 192 tons Peru will produce and the 55 tons Bolivia is expected to process.
Colombia's booming drug trade prompted President Clinton to announce a massive infusion of new assistance to Bogota last week, amounting to $1.3 billion over two years, far above last year's $289 million in aid. The request must be approved by Congress.
Earlier Thursday, Caldera applauded recent improvements in the Colombian army's human rights record, which once drew international condemnation, but said further effort is needed.
"Real headway is possible if every soldier, down to the lowest-ranking private, appreciates that due process and respect for human rights are fundamental to the military's larger mission, and understands that any violations will have severe legal and professional repercussions," Caldera told officers in a speech at Colombia's War College.
He also exhorted officers to open their doors to legislators, reporters and private civic groups to alleviate suspicions about growing military strength.
In the meeting with U.S. reporters, Caldera and Umberg said Washington plans to create guidelines to determine whether the aid package is successful in fighting narcotics.
"We're working on establishing what the benchmarks are," Caldera said.
Umberg said such benchmarks might include how much coca-growing land is yanked from drug traffickers' control, how many coca plants are eradicated and whether planes spraying coca crops with herbicide can penetrate deeper into the jungle.
Caldera said the huge aid package will not mean a significant increase in U.S. military personnel in Colombia, nor would U.S. soldiers accompany Colombian counternarcotics battalions on their missions.
About 100 U.S. troops are currently in Colombia and the number may rise to 160 or 170 during further training, "but we don't expect the number to go any higher," an aide to Caldera said.
The Pentagon hopes to begin training two new counterdrug battalions, to join an existing 950-man unit, as soon as April, the aide said.
Umberg declined to say when the existing unit might begin launching raids.
In a news conference with local news media, Caldera denied reports that Washington is sending the South American nation helicopters in bad shape or in need of spare parts.
"We are not interested in giving Colombia equipment that does not work," Caldera said.
Republican legislators in Washington have accused the State Department of giving Colombia old helicopters or failing to arm and equip them sufficiently for the perilous flights over jungle coca plantations, where the aircraft often take ground fire from leftist guerrillas.
Caldera said about $600 million of the U.S. aid package will be used for 30 Blackhawk and 33 Huey helicopters, 18 of which have already been delivered.
"The aircraft will radically increase your anti-narcotics airlift and enable you to access the region where the greatest expansion in drug cultivation is occurring," Caldera told the War College.